Sudan—Eritrea

PSL COUNTRY

Justification for SCS: Eritrea has a long history of involvement in internal Sudanese politics and challenging the government of Sudan’s power. Eritrea has, at times, allowed the Sudan Liberation Movement and the Justice and Equality Movement refuge as well as training opportunities in refugee camps on the Sudanese-Eritrean border. Eritrea is attempting to broaden its role and to use its past actions as a manner of brokering solidarity amongst rebel groups and encouraging them to negotiate with the Khartoum-based government. This first became apparent in 2006 when Eritrea began brokering peace negotiations between the Eastern Front and the Government of Sudan. Many believe that this is because Eritrea feared imminent conflict with Ethiopia and was not prepared to fight a war on two fronts.

Stakeholder size (number of people): Eritrea plays no direct role in the conflict, and the number of Eritrean personnel that liaise with the rebel groups is in a constant state of flux. Additionally, the percentage of the rebel group membership and leadership in Eritrea at any given point in time is impossible to determine.

Area of Influence:
a. Geographic area: Eritrea provides support and training space for rebel groups along the Sudanese-Eritrean border, particularly in and around refugee camps.
b. Population subsets: Traditionally Eritrea has found itself allied with the rebel groups and leaders, though as their interest has shifted more towards bringing parties to the negotiating table, there has been considerable shifting towards a more neutral position.

Description of Organization: Eritrea has been under administration by a transitional government since 1993. While periodic elections have been scheduled, they have yet to take place. The Transitional National Assembly does not meet and the independence of the judiciary is virtually non-existent.
a. Who are the leaders? The Current President of Eritrea is Isaias Afwerki.
b. How does one gain influence in the group? The current President, Isaias Afwerki, was chosen to be President in 1993 immediately preceding the declaration of independence by the Transitional National Assembly. He has remained in power ever since, and has ultimate control of all policy decisions.
c. What issues do they care about? Given the past support for the rebel groups, and Eritrea’s subsequent reconciliation with the Khartoum government has led to a desire to facilitate the creation of a lasting peace in Sudan, particularly in Darfur; and more specifically, to see itself listed as a benefit to the peace process.
d. What does the organizational structure look like? There are executive, legislative, and judicial elements of the Eritrean government. The executive is led by the president, as the chair of 17 ministers who serve as his cabinet. The legislative is the Transitional National Assembly which comprises 75 party members of the People’s Front for Democracy and Justice as well as 75 popularly elected members. Lastly, the judiciary, while nominally independent and stretching from the village level to national level; the independence of that judiciary has fallen into question. Ultimately the policy decisions rest with the president.
i. Rule by consensus
ii. Oligarchy
iii. Dictatorship
iv. Theocracy

Financial Resources (if applicable): N/A – No information suggests financial remittances to the rebel groups, either currently or in the past; it seems that assistance was of a more ideological nature, with safe havens provided as well.
a. List activities that generate cash flow:
b. Income from activities:
c. Profitability:

Military Resources (if applicable): N/A – Beyond the provision of safe havens and spaces for conducting training exercises along the Sudanese-Eritrean border, there seems to be no other militarily relevant involvement. Eritrea is thought to have provided arms to rebel groups prior to 2005, but no data exists on the status of those previous arms transfers.
a. What arms do they possess: N/A
i. What type?
ii. How much?
b. Experience level: N/A

Provide a short history of the stakeholder group
a. What is their origin? Following its colonial history, Ethiopia was a UN protectorate that was shunted into a federation with Ethiopia in 1952. Eritrea was annexed in 1961 sparking a civil war that lasted 30 years, ending in 1991, and resulting in Eritrea’s independence in 1993. Since 1993, Eritrea has been in a perpetual state of transitional administration.
b. How have they changed?
i. Interests: While Eritrea has past provided vast support for Sudanese rebels, it has since resolved its disputes with Khartoum and see’s itself now as a mediator for peace in Sudan.
ii. Level of influence: High. Eritrea has historical credibility with rebel groups, and has since established its bona fides with Khartoum.
iii. Resources: Limited only by state availability and will, though the Eritrean interest seems removed from resource provision.
c. What are their future goals? To mediate the war between the rebels and Khartoum